IMF expects inflation, low unemployment in Pakistan: Are the reasons 'political' or 'real'?

The Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts lower inflation and unemployment in Pakistan in the current financial year.

However, the IMF has forecast that the country's current account deficit will widen, while on the other hand, the country's growth rate is expected to be up to 4% in the current financial year.

The forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for most of the world's economies, including Pakistan, comes as Pakistan is set to hold talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive its suspended program. The dollar loan installment could be released in case of success of negotiations under the IMF's 'Extended Financing Facility program for Pakistan.

The IMF's forecast on Pakistan's economic indicators points to an improvement, which is expected to reduce unemployment and inflation this year. However, some Pakistani economists do not agree with the IMF's forecast of a reduction in unemployment and inflation and have expressed fears of a further rise in inflation.

On the other hand, the spokesperson of Finance Advisor Shaukat Tareen has also claimed that the employment opportunities have increased this year, in which he has mentioned the construction sector in particular.

Development in construction sector increases employment opportunities: government spokesman

Economic indicators and IMF forecast

In the current fiscal year's budget, the federal government had set a growth target of 4.8 percent, which is expected to be 4 percent, according to the IMF. However, the IMF expects the current account deficit to widen to 3.1 percent this year.

If the current account deficit increases at this rate, Pakistan's current account deficit will increase to ten billion dollars. The current account deficit was forecast by the Central Bank of Pakistan to be between two and three percent.

However, the IMF has forecast lower inflation in Pakistan this year at 8.5 percent.

Inflation is expected to be above 10% in the current financial year: Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed

Inflation in Pakistan was recorded at 9% in September. On the other hand, the IMF has also expressed the expectation of a reduction in the unemployment rate in Pakistan, which will be 4.8 percent compared to last year's estimate of 5 percent.

IMF forecast and Pakistani experts

Independent economists in Pakistan do not agree with the IMF's prediction of a reduction in unemployment and inflation, which in their view is based on crude foundations and estimates. Former Pakistani Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Pasha says he expects inflation to be between 11% and 12%.

Dr. Pasha said that although the government says the unemployment rate is five to six percent, it is estimated at 12 to 13 percent, according to unbiased estimates. He also claimed that the growth rate is expected to increase from three to three and a half percent.

According to Dr. Pasha, there are many "errors" in the IMF's estimates due to predictions based on estimates rather than accurate data. He said that in view of the rising trend in gas, electricity and commodity prices, it does not seem that the IMF's estimate of inflation would be correct. According to him, there is no mechanism to assess the unemployment rate in Pakistan on the basis of which an estimate can be made.

Rupee depreciates under IMF terms due to increasing external debt burden on Pakistan: Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed

Dr. Ashfaq Hassan, an economist and former adviser to the finance ministry, also disagrees with the IMF's estimates. He said that the inflation rate is expected to be above 10 percent in the current financial year. According to him, there is no standard to determine the unemployment rate in Pakistan.

Economist Dr. Farrukh Saleem says that inflation is not going to end, but it has just begun to rise. He said that if we take the prices of four items, we will know how much inflation will increase.

He said the price of palm oil has gone up from 600 600 to 1000 1,000 per tonne, LNG from ڈالر 10 to ڈالر 50, crude oil from 37 37 to 84 84 per barrel and coal from 60 60. It has reached 250 250 per tonne and these prices continue to rise.

Government position

On the other hand, Muzammil Aslam, spokesman for Finance Advisor Shaukat Tareen, said when contacted that the IMF's forecast for Pakistan's economic indicators was still lower than Pakistan's targets for the current financial year.

If you look at GDP growth, the government has set a target of 4.8 percent this year, but the IMF expects 4 percent. He said that if the current account deficit increases, it is due to rising prices in the global market as Pakistan has to import raw materials and machinery due to the increase in economic activities.

Talking about unemployment, Muzammil Aslam said that the reduction in the unemployment rate by the IMF was based on the fact that employment opportunities were increasing due to the economic growth in Pakistan. According to him, the situation in the labor market and construction sector is very good at present and a lot of jobs are being created in factories and the construction sector.

Muzammil Aslam said that the IMF's estimate of the inflation rate is more or less similar to the estimate of the government of Pakistan.

A lot of jobs are being created in the factories and construction sector: government spokesman

On what basis did the IMF predict?

Talking about the IMF's forecast for reducing inflation and unemployment in Pakistan in the current financial year, Dr. Pasha said that the IMF wants to show through its program that Pakistan It has benefited, not lost, in which it expects inflation and unemployment to fall. Dr Pasha claimed that the IMF's estimates were "politically motivated" and had its own motives.

In this regard, Dr. Ashfaq Hassan Khan said that the IMF program is always on a 'political basis' and does not look at the economic aspects. According to him, for its own purposes, the IMF presents the economic indicators of a country in a positive way so as to show that the IMF program is not harmful to the country.

He said that the price paid by Pakistan due to IMF program is clear from the poor economic situation of Pakistan. According to him, the rupee depreciated under the terms of the IMF, due to which, he claimed, Pakistan's debt has increased by 11 11 billion since May alone.

There is no truth in what economists are saying.

According to the Economic Survey, the area under cotton cultivation has also declined in the current financial year

Muzammil Aslam, while talking about the IMF's estimates of Pakistan's economic indicators on political grounds, said that what the economists were saying was not true.

According to him, the IMF's estimate of GDP growth is lower than Pakistan's target of 4.8 percent. Similarly, if there is talk of a reduction in unemployment, it is based on an increase in economic activity, including an increase in agricultural production and more activity in the construction sector.

He said that the IMF had expected the GDP to grow at 2% in the last financial year but Pakistan's GDP growth was 3.9%. He said that international factors were also involved in inflation and nothing could be said about the current state of uncertainty in the world.

How much technical capacity does the IMF have?

According to Dr. Hafeez Pasha, the IMF does not have any special technical capacity to collect data on Pakistan's economy, which is why its estimates and estimates of the economy are "flawed".

Dr. Ashfaq Hassan also agreed with this and claimed that when he was in the Ministry of Finance and negotiations were held with the IMF, the IMF would have accepted the GDP and revenue numbers given by him because He does not have the technical ability to test Pakistan's economy and he gives his opinion on estimates.

However, Dr. Farrukh Saleem dismissed the notion that the IMF did not have the technical capacity to know the economy. He said that if any institution in the world has data and technical capability, it is the IMF institution which has data and information about the economy of a country.

Dr. Farrukh Saleem said that if we talk about Pakistan, then it is difficult to predict the GDP because industry and agriculture data is available, only a little work is needed on the services sector. ۔